Tethering in the twilight of war and peace

A number of positive development are noteworthy in this regard: a) a three-month ceasefire from both sides has given way to peace talks (this is the third attempt since the rebellion broke out in 1996); b) Maoists' willingness to accept the principle of multiparty democracy and accept the verdict of Nepalese voters on whether or not the nation would remain a constitutional monarchy; c) steps taken by the interim government in meeting key Maoists' demand like the curtailment of King's power, declaring Nepal as secular state, and holding elections to constituent assembly to draft a new constitution; and lastly d) a historic meeting between the Maoists' supreme leader Prachendra and Prime Minister Koirala on June 16, which accepted Maoist demand to dissolve the present Parliament soon and form a new interim government that would include the rebels.

These are no doubt right steps in the right direction. But despite such apparent reconciliation between the Seven-Party Alliance (SPA) and the Maoists, two sides are far from reaching agreements on the key issues that would help bring this hardened revolutionary group on to the centre stage of Nepali politics. First, the issue of disarmament. Maoists refuse to surrender their arms before the elections unless the Nepalese army is disarmed, as the current army cannot be trusted not to interfere in the voting for a new constitution. However, they are willing to sequester their troops under international supervision as long as the military agrees to do the same. Second, Maoists insist that their troops be integrated into a new army. And lastly, they demand the restructuring of Nepali state into a federal state that offers greater rights to Nepal's ethnic minorities and erodes gender barriers.

From the list above it is easy to gauge that SPA would need to muster all its skills and ingenuity to reach a common ground. However, holding elections to CA is now most crucial. Once the CA is formed other issues like federalism etc. can be debated and incorporated. But how the elections to CA can be held without disarming is the biggest headache for Nepal. Elections without disarming the rebels in several countries with insurgency has had mixed results. Maoists want SPA to trust them but this is a commodity that is missing between the two.

A process needs to be evolved so that neither side feels threatened by potential tampering with the election results. In order to do so the SPA must start working to create a level playing field in which the elections to CA can be conducted smoothly. They must realise that Maoists' proposal to conditionally sequester their troops under UN supervision until elections and their eventual integration into a new national army is the only viable option to end the insurgency peacefully. None is possible without international oversight. Maoists' inclination towards UN role is something that needs to be considered seriously.

The situation is, no doubt, complex. That complexity is compounded by Nepal's proximity with its powerful neighbour India and its strategic interest in the area. For decades, especially since 1950s India's Nepal policy, as formulated by Nehru, has influenced Katmandu's internal politics. Now, as in the past, it would be very much affected by India's role. New Delhi's policy towards Nepal during April revolution has been confusing with New Delhi initially siding with the Palace but eventually casting its weight with the people's aspirations. People's aspirations in Nepal are to have a genuine democratic regime supported by all segments of the society including the Maoists. Surely the end of insurgency in Nepal paving way for a people's government cannot be against the interests of India. Presently, events indicate that New Delhi played commendable role in bridging the gap between SPA and the Maoists. In the same vein it is expected that India's attitude, especially towards involvement of UN in the disarmament process, would be positive, and thereby, help Katmandu in treading its difficult path in bringing the rebels within the mainstream politics. Something that very much coincides with India's interest. Any destabilisation is not good for either country.

One may conclude by noting that the situation in Nepal, at present, is very fluid. True, peace has been restored but it is easily discerned that it is a fragile peace. The contenders of power and yesterday's adversaries are eyeing each other with unease and mistrust. The Maoists feel sidelined and swerve between rhetoric and conciliatory gestures whereas the SPA seem unsure and demonstrate extremely cautious approach. The bottom line is that SPA cannot afford to falter in charting a course for a peaceful Nepal. All the parties concerned -- SPA, Maoists, civil society, and international community -- need to begin the process to end the insurgency bringing the Maoists into the mainstream politics. Any deviation from that course would plunge the country into another spade of violence --something the country and, as a matter of fact, South Asia can ill afford. The world, especially South Asia, watches as an uneasy Nepal sways in the twilight of war and peace. Hopefully, leadership of Nepal would live up to the expectations of its people and take steps to begin anew a journey for a peaceful and prosperous Nepal.

Dilara Choudury is Professor, Govt and Politics, Jahangirnagar University.