They are polls apart

Haksar's argument for the change was that the national and local issues were different in import and importance and they should be kept apart. They lost the focus when mixed. The campaign for the Lok Sabha election, he would say, should discuss the questions concerning the nation as a whole and the assembly ones the regional problems.

He was right. The simultaneous elections pushed to the background either local issues or the national ones. The voters were confused. They had no time to apply their mind to assess what they needed at the centre and what in the states. That is the reason why Pakistan and even Kashmir would figure in a state election. In the name of defence or unity, the political parties aroused emotions to create a wave which at times swept the country and paid the dividends.

True, the ballot papers for the Lok Sabha and the assembly were separate. But the polling for both was held on the same day, at the same time, at the same place. The voters would put the blame on the centre for all the acts of omission and commission. The rulers in the state would go scot-free. In state elections, it would be the other way round. The issues got jumbled and the responsibility dispersed. Elections lost the clear picture and purpose. The separation, when introduced, had the effect. I recall the example of Karnataka. The polling for the state assembly was one day after the Lok Sabha's. R.K. Hegde heading a political combination in Karnataka lost in the parliamentary election but won in the assembly one. The issues posed were different. While the voters liked the Congress rule at the centre, they favoured Hegde in the state.

Over the years, the voters have learnt to assess the performance of the centre and the states, independent of each other. The success or failure of a political party at New Delhi does not normally influence the election in the states. Pakistan and Kashmir, the perennial issues, have seldom been raised in assembly elections.

Elections in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and the tiny state of Pondicherry have been fought on local issues. National leaders have visited the states but only to highlight the regional issues. Communalism has got mentioned in all the five states but that is because the Congress and the BJP are pitted against each other in all the states. The voters have measured how far a political party in power has tackled their problems and how competent is the opposition to handle the job. The incumbency factor doesn't seem to have mattered much.

I have visited one state, Assam, before the results. The migrants from Bangladesh are an important local issue. The AASU, a body of students, which is behind the movement of detecting "foreigners" and deporting them, has helped the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) in election. The AGP looks like doing well but its minus point is that the party failed to perform both the times when it was in power. What may decide its fate or that of the ruling Congress is the Muslim vote. The Congress is seen favourable to "foreigners," the Muslim Bangladeshis. But they have founded their own party, the Assam United Democratic Front. It may count in government formation. Still, the emergence of a political party on the basis of religion is not a good development. It is against the country's ethos of secularism.

Muslims are also a crucial factor in Kerala. The Congress-led front which rules the state is under attack by the communist-led front for "lack of progress." But what may tilt the balance is the Muslim vote. For the first time, the Jamiat-e-Islami has jumped into the fray to support the communists. The Indian Muslim League, which is in the government, continues to support the Congress. In the face of division, any of the two fronts can have a majority, although Kerala has voted to power one front in one election and the other in the following. In Tamil Nadu, the climate has been changing day by day. At one time, it was certain that the DMK combination would return to power. But Vaiko's support to chief minister Jayalalithaa has been crucial to her party AIADMK. The recent happenings in Sri Lanka may influence the voters because the Tamil sentiment is generally for the LTTE and even its demand for a separate state. Pondicherry is too small to indicate any trend.

The communists may not dictate terms in Kerala but they will do so in West Bengal. They are faced with local problems like the shutting of industrial units and the increasing unemployment. But the countryside is still with them because of land reforms and the power transferred to the panchayats. Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress is the only serious opposition. But she is no more a stormy petrel. She has damaged her image by having an alliance with the BJP at the centre. The Congress is the distant third. The party has also been handicapped by the fact that it could not attack the communists who sustained the Manmohan Singh government at the centre. Whatever the outcome of elections, the Manmohan Singh government at the centre does not face any danger. They may confirm the impression that the Congress has not recovered the ground in most states where it didn't do well in the last Lok Sabha polls. However, the change at the instance of Haksar has not been an unmixed blessing. The separation of election has led to the disturbance of the nation's rhythm. As a result, one state or the other goes to polls every year and diverts the attention of ruling parties from economic and other vital developments.

Now that elections are over, New Delhi should seriously tackle the wave of violence in and outside the country. The Taliban, a lunatic fringe of fundamentalists, operate from the Pakistani soil and they have the support of ISI. The killings at Doda too are by those who have links with the terrorists in Pakistan. Islamabad cannot just shrug off its shoulders. It must act, not for the sake of showing but for closing its land and support to the terrorists. EOM

Kuldip Nayar is an eminent Indian columnist.