Tri-nation gas pipeline : Must be handled with caution and care

By ABMS Zahur
15 June 2005, 18:00 PM
Atri-nation (Bangladesh-Myanmar-India) meeting is reported to be held soon to discuss the issue of supply of gas from Myanmar to India through Bangladesh. We are sure as to which of these countries consider the issue as urgent and critical. Apparently, it is India which has become desperate to remove its worry to meet the rapid increase in consumption of energy, particularly due to rapid industrialisation and appreciable improvement in quality of life. Its attempt to obtain gas from Iran through Pakistan has become uncertain because of US objection to such a deal. As we could gather from various sources it appears that India-Bangladesh-Myanmar deal depends on India's desire to agree to satisfy the three pre-conditions (a. Allowing Bangladesh link to Nepal and Bhutan through Indian corridor; b. Allowing import of electricity from Nepal through Indian corridor; and c. Reducing Bangladesh's trade imbalance with India). Unless India and Bangladesh settle these points it is extremely doubtful whether Bangladesh will allow laying down of the gas pipeline for a gain of around US$125m a year.

Apart from the above there are a number of issues which cannot be solved because of lack of adequate cooperation from India. Generally speaking our experience during the last 31 years (1974-2005) shows bilateral issues can hardly be settled if there is any question of give and take. We have not yet been able to complete the demarcation of border. This is causing great hardship to few thousand Bangladeshis. India is continuing push-in without discussion at political level. Indian border security force is killing Bangladeshis on slight pretexts. These problems, as we see, could not be settled through discussion at official level. Without waiting further it is advisable that these issues are seriously considered at high political level.

Bangladesh has been advised by various experts to raise the river water issue at the regional level because this problem, as it appears, can not be solved bilaterally. India is advising us to improve our water management system and go for bilateral negotiation. Through Bangladesh has become independent only 34 years back it is the only state in South Asia which has earned its freedom through great sacrifice. Thus through sheer pressurising it would not be possible for India to obtain benefit because no government in Bangladesh will ever dare to take any decision which may be detrimental to the interest of Bangladesh.

In this tri-nation issue Myanmar's interest should be carefully considered because we are looking forward to develop closer relationship with her. She must be convinced that though we fully appreciate her interest we would not be able to pursue any proposal not acceptable to our people. However, we know that there is no last word in negotiation and as such we shall try to proceed cautiously and carefully in this case.

Not only as a member of Bimstec but also as a neighbour we are trying to develop closer relations with Myanmar. It may be added that both Nepal and Bhutan are members of Bimstec. It may also be pointed out that as land-locked countries both Nepal and Bhutan deserve special consideration from both Bangladesh and India. We would never suggest to India to accept any proposal detrimental to its interest. At the same time we have to see our own interest. Unless India agrees to reconsider its policy of bilateralism we do not see any prospect for improving good neighbourly relations. If India continues to promote her interest totally ignoring the interest of its neighbour then the existing relation may be adversely affected. The role of Indian media and the attitude of Indian bureaucracy also do not appear to be friendly. In dealing with India, a giant in Asia, it is advisable for Bangladesh to go by national consensus.

It may be pointed out that Myanmar-Bangladesh-India gas pipeline project started in 1997. Project proposal is reported to have been presented to the government of West Bengal and later on to the governments of Bangladesh and Myanmar. It may be assumed that contemplation about such a project was known to the then Bangladesh government (may be it was not made public). We are not clear as to whether the demand for free access to Nepal and Bhutan in exchange of allowing the proposed pipeline to pass through Bangladesh is a proposal of the present government. However, it may be appreciated that government has realised the sensitivity in maintaining the pipeline passing through Bangladesh territory without reaching full understanding.

Bangladesh is pursuing a policy of peaceful coexistence right from its independence. Because of commercial, financial, economic or religious considerations she may regard some states more acceptable. To create better and closer understanding among the states of South Asia she visualised the formation of SAARC. She became member of D-8 and Bimstec states to develop better relation with states holding similar view. In principle she has agreed to allow laying of the pipeline in her territory. What she wants in exchange is not unreasonable. She always wishes India well. We wish India appreciates our problems and hindrances. In the ensuing deliberation it may be proper to consider the following points:

(a) Among the three India is a major power of Asia. Thus it would be a nice gesture for India to appreciate the problems of smaller states;

(b) As the aspirant for becoming a permanent member of the UNSC India should not ignore the regional interest involved in the issue;

(c) As India is reported to have shown more interest in SAARC it may be advisable for her to be more attentive to strengthening Bimstec.

ABMS Zahur is a retired Joint Secretary.