Turkey in European Union

In the last three days the long negotiations, which have seen many ups and downs, came to a head. The mood of the Summit in Brussels was set by Jacques Chirac, President of France, which along with Germany occupy the driver's seat within the EU. In his press conference he clearly stated that France wanted Turkey as a full member and brushed aside speculation on concepts like Associate membership. It became clear from the stand taken by Chirac that he as the virtual leader of the EU had decided Turkey to join the EU. He has worked in close concert with Gerhard Schroeder, Chancellor of Germany who shares the leadership with France.

During the intense negotiations among the EU members, the most surprising development was the emergence of Cyprus, as the real sticking point. Cyprus is a divided island since 1974 and the southern part is inhabited by a population of 600000 of Greek origin. For several decades the UN has been involved in intricate negotiations between South Cyprus and Northern Cyprus, which is recognised by Turkey alone. As EU prepared to invite 10 new members she included Cyprus. Kofi Annan, the UN Secretary General presented a plan of settlement of the Cyprus question to the two parties of the island and it was thought that the two sides would vote yes and join the EU as a single state. This UN plan was thrown to the winds as the Turkish Cypriots in the North voted yes and under Greek Cypriot prodding South voted No. This upset the entire Annan plan as EU had already included Cyprus as a new member. Thus EU had become not an Organisation of 25 members but rather twenty four and a half.

In Brussels, Cyprus pitched heavily for explicit Turkish recognition which Turkey could not offer without serious consequences within her own population. Diplomats settled for a formulae through which Turkey undertook to virtually recognise Cyprus immediately before 3 October 2005, that is the beginning of talks between Turkey and the EU. Kofi Annan was attending the EU Summit as a special guest and he stated that his Organisation was ready to resume negotiations provided the parties came forward. The crisis created by Cyprus to the point of dangling the veto in front of Turkey, has left a bad taste in the mouth and pressure will no doubt mount to find a solution to the divided island.

Turkey is the first Muslim member within the EU, which to this day has remained a Christian club. The EU will have borders stretching right inside the Arab world and the Turkic Republics of Central Asia. In his press conference Chirac stated ' if we look at the past of Turkey, we find that she has sometimes looked east and sometimes west. We have decided to integrate her within our western system'. Chirac's observations may not be quite correct because Ottoman Turkey went to West and East as conqueror but emotionally she has been close to the West. By her population of 71 million Turkey is the second most populous member and by her rapid growth of population may outstrip most populous Germany in the near future.

EU started as an Economic Union and in spirit it is still predominantly economic in its outlook. The Turkish share market, which has been closely watching developments in Brussels posted an all time high when news came that the 'door had been opened wide'. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayiip Erdogan, who carried on negotiations with the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, stated after the end of the Summit, 'we have been successful'.

17 October 2004 will enter the folklore of Turkey for, as stated by Erdogan, 'a silent revolution' has taken place. As such a major event starts sinking among the Turkish population the idea that Turkey will never be the same again.

Arshad-uz-Zaman is a former Ambassador.