West Bengal polls: Leftists tipped for easy win

Politically, West Bengal is considered as one of the most advanced states in India for long. The famous comment of Gokhle during the British rule that what "Bengal thinks today, the rest of India tomorrow" still holds good. What distinguishes the state from almost all other states(provinces) of the country is the unique political stability witnessed for several decades. Most Indian states including the population-wise largest Uttar Pradesh often experienced fluid political situation with no party or alliance having absolute command in the assembly resulting in weak or unstable governments. But West Bengal is largely different as the state has seen stable governments for most part of its history since the independence (1947).

Initially, it was Congress phase with such distinguished leaders like Dr. B.C. Ray, Prafulla Sen and S.S. Ray and then the current long phase of the leftists, who are at the helm for an uninterrupted 28 years. Veteran Communist leader Jyoti Basu saw this long innings as chief minister till five years ago when he voluntarily retired from official position and his successor Buddhadev Bhattacharya is carrying Basu's mantle with remarkable ability. The ruling leftfront, a combine of several leftist organisations headed by the Communist Party (CPM) is once again facing the polls with Bhattacharya in the forefront to record another easy victory.92-year-old Basu too is very much in the campaign despite his fragile health. He refused to be totally withdrawn as he says " a communist never retires from public life".

Not that the state never saw political instability. There was a brief spell when no strong governments existed like one of the coalition of Bangla Congress and the leftists with Amal Kumar Mukherjee as the chief minister. Federal governments these days in India are invariably made up of alliance partners and this culture is also often reflected in the state governments. In West Bengal, the leftists are firmly entrenched without the help of others. Interestingly, this time the ruling leftfront is a supporter of the United Progressive Alliance(UPA) government at the centre -- albeit occasional differences in policy matters. But their ties are at dagger-drawn level in the state politics. Here Congress led by Sonia Gandhi is an adversary. Both the parties lost their two key leaders just before the polls -- first CPM's state secretary Anil Biswas died and then elderly and veteran Congress leader and MP A.B.A. Ghani Khan Chowdhury. The deaths came as big setback for their respective parties. However, the leftists' main rival in the state is the not the Congress, but the Trinamul Congress led by fireband Mamata Bannerjee, who several years ago broke away from the main Congress and took West Bengal by storm by her meteoric rise mainly in capital Kolkata and other urban areas. Mamata is seen as a stormy petrel in the Indian politics as she is often a factor in the national context even though her organisation is confined only in the state. But in recent times, her popularity and political base weakened because of a variety of factors including alliance with the BJP, widely seen as communal. Mamata was the central minister twice during the previous NDA rule. She chose to quit federal ministership just before the last West Bengal polls with the hope of dislodging the leftists from power and become chief minister. To achieve this end, she had even allied with Congerss, but their joint challenge did little to harm the ruling front, which had romped home easily. This time, Mamata is making another desperate bid to occupy the Eden Building, the seat of state power, with remote chance of any success. Alliance with the Congress did not come up this time as Mamata refused to part ways with the BJP as demanded by the Congress, which is a secular organisation. Mamata's credentials as secular suffered a setback because of her close links with the BJP, which is not at all a force to reckon with in West Bengal even though it has large following at national level. Probably, Mamata felt it unwise to distance with the BJP considering latter's strong base at the federal level.

Since the two main challengers of the government -- Trinamul and the main Congress -- failed to reach any electoral understanding this time, there is a feeling that both may cut sorry figure even more disappointing than the last time. The Trinamul has been badly shaken by a number of defections in recent times and as such Mamata wants a good showing in the polls in an attempt to refurbish the party. But it appears unlikely. The main Congress is the third force in the state and it may improve its position marginally. The leftists seem unassailable once again.

It will be height to folly to assume that over the long spell the ruling leftfront has succeeded in responding to the needs and requirements of West Bengal. The performance is tinged with both success and failure. But its main strength lies in the fact that it has an honest sense of purpose. It could convince the people that it is sparing no sincere efforts to address their problems. The progress in the rural areas is seen as quite spectacular in the Indian context and the government is now attaching importance also to industrialisation in addition to the agricultural development. It has also encouraging foreign investment in this regard. It seems new economic policies of the leftists are being well received by the people.

The polls are expected to see the ruling front return to power easily. The absence of any strong challenger stemming from fractious opposition and a sound record highlighted by largely incorruptible administration puts the leftists in a commanding position. However, it faces the task of ensuring a fully free and fair voting since opponents often accuse it of irregularities being in the government for long. In anycase, such electoral malpractices, if true, are at a minor scale. So barring any stunning reversal, West Bengal is set to return the government in power to another five year term unhesitatingly.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is Foreign Editor of BSS.