What next after Fallujah?

American media never exposes the events and happenings of the world to the general public with a view to making them aware of the events outside America. Today, USA is the only superpower on earth having the biggest economy. Can it play the role of the greatest nation in a true manner in this unipolar world?

These days what American public is seeing in Fallujah cannot be treated as a victory. It's a fight against the insurgents who do not have proper command structure but have the highest motivation factor. One can hardly see the insurgents but could see the actions of US soldiers who are moving in battle ready position on the road and carrying out indiscriminate firing at the houses in the built up areas under heavy air support, artillery and tank fire. None could confirm how many of the Iraqis killed are really insurgents, in the city of Fallujah. All those killed in the massive indiscriminate bombing are accounted as insurgents. US forces have officially declared that the total number of insurgents killed is over 1200. But no mention was made about the injured insurgents or civilians killed. Red Cross/Red Crescent and UN/aid organisations termed the killing of thousands of innocent civilians an event of human catastrophe. A large number of civilians, who could not leave the city while it was surrounded by US soldiers many days before the actual attack are the victims of indiscriminate air attacks and shelling.

The chairman of the joint chief of staff General Richard Myers has boasted that guerilla bases have been destroyed and the troops are advancing successfully by clearing the pockets of resistances. Guerilla forces do not have any headquarters and command structure and are not uniformed soldiers. Success could be mentioned driving insurgents out of some temporary bases, which is the technique the guerilla/insurgents adopt for urban warfare. They do not surrender or fight to the last but melt away at the end of every resistance. The aim and mission of a guerilla fighter is to play on the nerves of regular soldiers to make them frustrated and suddenly attacking them by small group or sniping them from unexpected positions. Surrender of guerillas and capture of their headquarters has not been reported by US army, instead escape of those insurgents are reported.

At this stage the most important mission of US military is to eliminate the insurgents and hold a 'successful' election in January 2005.The possibilities of showing peaceful environment for election looks bleak in Iraq. It is predicted that the situation may be worst after the election particularly after the withdrawal of some troops of US and its allies in the near future.

Victory is not only to capture a city or town but to have total command of the region, gain acceptability and the confidence of the local people. Installing civilian government in an election through manipulation cannot be treated as successful transition. The US military as well as the civil government will have to convince people of the invaded country that the military has been sent for the betterment of the people. Also, at the end of the day the elected government must have the acceptability to the people. It seems that not only the insurgents, most of the Iraqis also are not convinced about reasons of Anglo-US invasion of Iraq.

If US military continue to kill innocent civilians, women and children in the process of eliminating the insurgents, the action will be termed as defeat of US army as well as of the government. Also, if the guerilla fighters could come back to their old bases like Fallujah or Mosul, which is declared as free of insurgents, it will also be treated as defeat of the military as well as US government. Number of casualties in Fallujah operation is very high from the military points of view -- in that more than 50 soldiers were killed and more than 500 injured. Although the Iraqi guerillas have claimed to have killed 400 and injured more than 2000 and shot down few fighter aircraft and helicopters besides a number of tanks/vehicles.

During US presidential election a diversionary tactics was used by saying that America's security is at jeopardy because of war in Iraq. Fear phobia was inculcated in the minds of American public. This motivation factor worked well amongst those who have very little knowledge about the war in Iraq.

Today two of Iraq's important neighbours have deep-rooted interest in running its affairs. Iran has a great interest -- it wants the Shias to get organised well and elect the Shia leaders of its choosing to run the country where 65 per cent of the population are Shia. The Saudis would like to have Sunni leaders in the country, as they are apprehensive of Iraq's Shia leadership. By propagating that Iran and Syria are in the hit list of the US for financing the Palestinian fighters and the terrorists, US may not expect to get the cooperation from these two important countries. Without the active support of these two countries peace in Iraq can never be achieved. But the rhetoric by US government in the past made to believe that the US is going to attack Iran and Syria in the long run. As such these two countries may not give any support to USA in containing/destroying the Iraqi insurgents at this stage and installing a government of its choosing.

In the word of General Wesley K. Clerk, Commander in Chief of US Southern Command: "a great amount of doubts prevailing amongst the Muslim countries about the sincerity of the present US government to solve Israel-Palestinian problems. Because of this, day by day the number of martyrs is becoming bigger". It is believed that Israel dictates and controls the US Middle East policy, particularly the Palestinian issues.

After the fall of Saddam the US failed to enforce law and order; there was lack of farsightedness and comprehensive planning to tackle the situation politically. This mistake is likely to be repeated after capture of Fallujah. Whole population of Iraq looks apprehensive and hostile about the presence of US troops and US policy in Iraq.

Today what is happening in Iraq is more than what is seen. It is not the war against Iraq but an effort to create new generations through election under the umbrella of superpower United States. US is loosing fast its time for diplomatic breakthrough as neither UN/European countries nor Arab world has been brought into confidence. At this stage it seems that the present US government feels that the problems in Iraq could be solved through military might single handedly.

There is no sign of prevailing peace in Iraq. Today or tomorrow US troops will have to leave Iraq but it will leave behind the legacy of chaos among Shia, Sunni and Kurdish communities. Leadership to run the Iraqi government cannot easily be established because of heterogeneous groups, clans and religious and ethnic diversity.

Instead of bringing peace in the region what America has sown in the Middle East is yet to be seen. One may predict that the anti American sentiments may be exploited by many extremist groups and elements to sabotage the American interest all over the world.

Poor countries will suffer economically, as of today the price of oil is much higher than its variable index. US economy will not be out of that effect, sliding of US dollar is giving indication. Will the present US government assure the world community that it can really handle the crisis in Iraq, Afghanistan and other countries politically, economically and militarily?

The writer served as Director, Military Operations in AHQs and also as Ambassador of Bangladesh.