Why Bush is likely to win re-election

The process of electing the president of America is a combination of custom, state law and the constitution. A president is elected by delegates to the Electoral College and not directly. Each party selects these electors from states level. The Electoral College, casts ballot in the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December. Ballots are sent to Washington and counted before a joint session of the new congress .The candidate who wins the majority of the electors vote (51% or 270 votes) becomes the president. The president elect is sworn in on January 20.

The most important issue in an American election is the state of the domestic economy. This has been counterweighted against other issues like scandals in the personal life of the candidate, guffaws and bloopers, lacking in foreign policy or lack of experience in holding government office, shortcomings in education and experience. The economy is the number one issue, and even a strong slander campaign where there is prima facie evidence of scandal against a candidate, will not work to undermine the chances of a candidate. That is how President Clinton won reelection, despite the Monica Lewinsky affair. President Clinton won re-election on the basis of a competent economic leadership.

U.S citizens are not the most avid followers of the activities of the rest of the world. In fact, you may ask simple questions to the man on the street in the US and the answers are going to surprise you, since the respondents would reveal a lack of interest in international politics and economy. Therefore, foreign policy, while important, usually takes a back seat. There is one exception to this rule. The involvement of US forces in a war comes for close scrutiny. This was true during the Vietnam War and the Iraq war is no exception. We have the issue of the missing "weapons of mass destruction" and the daily rise in the body count, as more and more US soldiers die in Iraq.

The state of the US economy will fare prominently in the various debates and forums. The Democratic Party would show that the Bush administration has been unsuccessful in improving the economy. In most cases, Mr. Bush would have a hard time keeping up with the criticism against his performance. The economy, though showing signs of an improvement by and large is not doing too well. The main worry as always will be, the number of jobless, and the number of new jobs being created.

The recent figures state that, the economy has been recovering steadily. The number of factories being purchased has shown steady growth signaling greater entrepreneurship and consequently chances of more jobs. Purchase of homes and consumer spending has picked-up signifying confidence in the future .The secretary of commerce has spoken about growth of 5+ points in his quarter .The economy showing signs of improvement will help the reelection campaign. However, the Bush economic plan has not been considered credible because it has failed to stimulate job creation. And the massive income tax cut is considered typically pro rich. The budget deficit is high and an unbalanced budget takes credibility away form government expansion plans like public work programmes and other measure to improve health care and welfare programmes. The Clinton Presidency reversed the Regan era legacy of massive budget deficit, as Democratic Party spin-doctors would say. And they might go on to add that President Clinton left a budget that was in surplus. Democrat Howard Dean could claim the Clinton mantle of balancing the budget .The Iraq war necessitates government borrowing. Howard Dean the democratic candidate has opposed the war form the very start.

The closet thing to a "smoking gun" against Bush is the increasing debate about the weapons of mass destruction that Saddam Hussain was supposed to have been developing. This is now clear to the minds of many Americans that, there was no such weapons programme, or atleast not nearly to the degree suggested by this administration.

The fact that the president may have lied to the nation has the potential to become a seriously negative point against him. The casualty rate of US servicemen in Iraq will be a major point against Bush, since there is no doubt that the war has cost a lot of hardship to many American families.

George W. Bush became president with problems of credibility and a lack of statesman like aura that the America people like in their president. The controversial vote count that confirmed his presidency was a start in the wrong foot. Bush junior drew flak for not knowing the names of the president of Pakistan or the prime minister of India. However, much has gone on the last four years. Mr. Bush has gained experience and, for better or worse, played a role in shaping the world map, as it stands now.

The policies of George Bush have been divisive in many ways. The reasons given for the Iraq war appear not to hold truth. The European allies are upset at the "go it alone" policy and the harsh tone followed by Mr. Bush while haranguing the European leaders. Intransigence at GATT/Cancun, treatment of prisoners in Guantanamo Bay and many other issues has made Mr. Bush a controversial leader.

However, one has to know the American psyche to successfully predict the fate of President Bush's re-election bid. The American people usually rally around their president in a time of war. And Mr. Bush has cast himself as a leader waging a war against terrorism. That is why his team has tried to drop hints in disinformation like Saddam Hussein's alleged links with Al-Qaeda when all information and indications say differently. An image of a tough leader, doing his bit to save the nation, is convincing sound bite in election year. In any case, the American's have seen Bush in the media for four years now. This leaves an impression as people become used to seeing a president work for them, maybe not very competently, but the subconscious treats a sitting president with the familiarity granted to a known face of a neighbourhood. You may not be friends with him, but you know him. Therefore, in all likelihood, George William Bush will win a new four-year term, as president of the United States of America.