Will Manmohan-Musharraf talks produce any expected result?

Indo-Pak talks at any level are constrained by colossal limitations. No government in the either country can on its own take the task of making the dialogue a success since it has to take the entire nation along with it as too much of emotive issues are involved .Prudence and rationale clearly suggest that any success in the talks between the two traditionally hostile neighbours can come through a long drawn process that has to proceed through a general ambience of goodwill devoid of mistrust and belligerence which generally characterise the bilateral ties. This process has begun and as such the positive outcome is contingent upon successfully carrying it out to a culmination where both sides can have a situation of not a loss of face but a win-win one.

Whether the current dialogue that is covering various levels will eventually lead to such a desirable stage is too early to conclude, but it will be too premature to call such exercise a "failure" given the complexity of the subjects at stake and a similar attitude in determining the outcome of the coming summit level talks is also still-born since one must not lose sight of the fact that none really expects any substantial progress in the discussions. A reasonable degree of achievement in terms of keeping the talks going and lessening the enmity will be a step in the right direction.

The coming talks between the two heads of government are not a "summit" as such because they would meet at a third country where they will be present for multilateral purposes. However, bilateral meetings even on such occasions at times produce high results and there is no dearth of such instances in the international diplomacy. But the current state of Indo-Pak relations is "normal" which does not warrant any "breakthrough" or, for that matter, any spectacular achievement. In fact, when president Musharraf and former Indian prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee were in Kathmandu and shared the same dais for the SAARC summit, even though they did not have any bilateral meeting, the occasion helped tremendously to improve New Delhi-Islamabad ties, which were then on the brink of total collapse owing to severe tensions. Two leaders had no talks except shaking hands when Musharraf rather dramatically approached Vajpayee at a time when another India-Pakistan full blown war looked imminent but the Kathmandu gathering helped reduce the tensions and both nations rolled back from the near-war situation.

When Manmohan-Musharraf meeting hopefully takes place in New York, it has more to offer than lose in setbacks since two countries are now on a path of reconciliation where confrontation is not the order of the day, albeit no progress at all on the central problem governing their ties -- the vexed "Kashmir" issue.

The Natwar-Kasuri talks in New Delhi were preceded by discussions by their foreign secretaries Shyam Charan and Riaz Khokar and both men did not seek to project much hype as they underlined the sensitivity of the Kashmir issue where two neighbours hold diametrically opposite positions. But the expectations surged as the foreign ministers met evidently for the reason that it was the political level discussions .As it happened to be the first politically high level talks since the new UPA government took over in India a few months ago, many eyes were fixed on how this new government view ties with Pakistan compared to the previous NDA authority of Vajpayee. Most part of NDA government's time saw hostile relationship with Pakistan although last few months witnessed New Delhi's initiative to normalise the relations.

The UPA government inherited a good environment and hence was the expectation unreasonably inflated in certain quarters. Several meetings including on nuclear-related matters between the two countries in the last few months were not fruitless. True, no progress was made in Natwar-Kasuri meeting on the central issue of "Kashmir" while two sides described it as "modest gains" on peripheral matters like extension of ceasefire along the Line of Control (LOC) in Kashmir and cooperation in some other fields.

"Kashmir" was discussed and two sides reiterated their vastly divergent positions. An impression began to gain ground that the meeting was unsuccessful since this issue remained as it is. But one has to be mindful that progress in such a highly contentious problem cannot be attained in one swoop, let alone any settlement. The absence of any rancour in the parleys and the pledge to carry forward the discussion itself is a positive sign.

Indian contention of cross-border insurgency aided by Pakistan and Islamabad's assertion that talks must revolve around the wishes of the Kashmiri people and alleged human rights abuses by New Delhi are unlikely to find a common ground easily. Continued talks may help reduce the yawning gap even though none should be under the illusion that a critical problem could be resolved in quick time. But it is necessary that conditions are slowly created so that some solution of the thorny issue is finally found.

The Manmohan-Musharraf meeting is not expected to yield much results as it is not supposed to deliver anything very substantial. The full-fledged summits like Vajpayee-Nawaz Sharif in Lahore was dubbed as positive but in reality did little as within months "Kargil" erupted and later Vajpayee-Musharraf talks in Agra was seen also as negative. Musharraf originally hails from Delhi and Manmohan from west Punjab in Pakistan. The Pakistan president was given high honour when he visited his ancestral home while a similar welcome is awaited for Manmohan whenever he chooses to visit his village home during a visit to Pakistan. Two "M"s are set to talk critical issues to improve bilateral ties which has a big bearing on the overall political climate of the south Asian region.

Pragmatism suggests that no "breakthrough" -- an expression often used by certain sections of media in both countries on their important bilateral meetings -- is expected since such development seems somewhat out of context. But the positive signals need to be consolidated in the quest for lasting peace by eventually settling the main issue in a spirit of accommodation. Manmohan-Musharraf meeting will hopefully deliver reasonable degree of gains that will help further create a conducive atmosphere not only between the two principal players of the area but for the region as a whole.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist.