Will the outcome of the Indian state elections influence the national polls?

In contrast, a pall of gloom has descended in the Congress camp, even though the party sought to put up a brave face saying too much should not be read into the results and brushed aside the BJP's views that the development would largely influence the national elections scheduled in the second half of the next year. Possibly, the Congress is not wrong to assert that the state assembly polls should not be taken as a barometer of popularity for the national polls, despite the fact that the outcome of the state polls will certainly embolden the BJP ahead of the Indian elections that would determine who would rule the country for the next five year term.

Four states -- Madhya Pradesh, Rajsthan, Delhi and Chhattisgarh went to the polls on December 1 to elect new Vidhan Shabas and the BJP won handsomely in the first two key states while it failed to wrest power in Delhi and just managed to scrape through in the fourth one.

The media and opinion polls had predicted tough neck-and-neck contests between the BJP and the Congress in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan while a congress victory in Delhi was on the cards. As the Congress succeeded in retaining power in Delhi, it suffered severe setbacks in two states, belying the predictions, as the BJP scored alandslide victory. Its narrow victory in Chhattisgarh brought it success in three of the four states that went to polls.

Earlier, another state -- the north-eastern Mizoram had also gone to elect a new assembly and here too hope of a Congress victory did not come through as the regional party backed by the BJP captured power. The results ended a winning streak by the Congress in the state assembly polls as it had won most of such elections barring Gujarat and Goa, and the success of the main opposition had greatly helped it come out of the cycle of despair that had engulfed it in the aftermath of debacle in the Lokshaba polls more than four years ago. The failure in the recent assembly polls has come as a shocking surprise for the Congress and its leader, Italian-born Sonia Gandhi, who is fighting a gruelling battle to establish her credentials as leader of India's oldest political organisation that spearheaded the independence from the British.

Accomplishments in the state polls had helped improve her image to lead the party to success but the recent development has once again put in question her charisma and dynamism in leading the vast organisation.

However, the state assembly polls are not exactly fought on the issues which generally dominate the national voting. Different matters pertaining to the individual states take precedence and here too such issues have influenced the mandate of the people.

For instance, Madhya Pradesh is a key state of India as it is largest in term of geographical size and it is also the home of prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, although he has contested elections from other states like Delhi and Uttar Pradesh. The Congress was in power here for ten years and Digvijay Singh was at the helm.The very fact that the main opposition was in power in the state of prime minister Vajpayee was a kind of embarrassment for the centre-ruling NDA as well as for the BJP and also the prime minister himself.

As such, it was only logical that the BJP would spare no efforts to dislodge the Congress from power in this state. But the process was hastened by the Congress itself as it failed to address the basic problems of the state while being in power for many years in a stretch. Arguably, success in governance could be a relative matter but most people were convinced that the Congress government was not delivering the goods. Besides, there were allegations galore against the chief minister himself. It is not surprising that the Congress paid the price, and that too heavily, as the BJP won a two thirds majority here. By the same token, the Congress lost in Rajasthan where it had toppled the BJP from power five years ago. Congress leadership in the state squabbled as the governance also suffered due to corruption.

The party retained ascendancy in Delhi as the law and order situation and prices of essentials were kept under control by an able chief minister, Sheila Dixit. Unquestionably, there is no room to downplay this success of the Congress as this is the seat of power of the national government being the capital of the country. Chhattisgarh and Mizoram are tiny states and obviously attract scant attention even though the outcome of the polls is important for the contending forces.

The results should not be seen as a victory for communal forces since the BJP is widely seen aslargely representing the Hindu nationalists compared to secular Congress. Certainly, the results are a boon for the BJP and bane for the Congress, but its does not necessarily reflect the nation's sentiments on the sensitive communal issues. The rise of firebrand communal leaders like Uma Bharati as chief minister after the elections may cause some worry in the secular camps but all these are largely a logical corollary to the failure of good governance in the Congress ruled states.

Unless advanced, the Indian polls are several months away (expected to take place in September) and many developments could occur by that time to determine the outcome of the people's verdict. The performance of the Vajpayee government on foreign policy, economic conditions, and more importantly, welfare of the vast segment of the multitude, along with a variety of the issues that are inextricably linked with the nation and people, will weigh heavily in the elections. The recent state assembly polls should make the Congress sit up as to what went wrong in its governance while the BJP may not count too much on the success as far as the national balloting is concerned.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is Senior Special Correspondent of BSS.