Will the UK be OK after the election?

The head says, barring an earthquake such as "Madrid 3/11," the most one can expect is that the already written victory speech will be re-edited late Thursday night into "The British people have spoken . The message is loud and clear. We need to take stock, move forward and plan for the future. I am truly humbled and cannot take things for granted . . ."

Unlike the US President, the British Prime Minister can choose the date of the election. It is being called over a year early. With a whopping majority in Parliament and no new Big Idea, there was no need to seek a fresh mandate from the people. So why call it a year early? It is a case of "cut and run."

Retail sales are down year on year as consumers realise they are heavily indebted and have to start saving. House prices are on the wobble and on the way down. How far, no one knows but the go-go years are definitely over. Better now than later.

Crisis, what crisis?
The next New Labour government will be mired in a state of permanent crisis after a honeymoon of six months. The inevitable housing collapse will hit the consumer-driven economy for six from 2006 onwards. Once again (as in the early 90s), thousands of supposedly wealthy Britons will be forced to sell their holiday homes in Spain, Greece, and France. The downturn will last for the rest of the decade. The US Federal Reserve's Alan Greenspan cannot create another global credit bubble to get us out of this one.

Before 2009, don't be surprised if there isn't another "once-in-a-generation-sterling-crisis." Markets will no longer perceive sterling as a petro-currency as the decline in North Sea oil production coincides with Britain becoming a net oil importer. Technically this point was reached in 2004, but the gap between production and import will widen significantly. Oil production has helped underpin sterling's rise over the last few years as oil prices have soared.

Back office
We should keep an eye on what the big financial institutions do during the downturn. After all, the "London Economy" is supposed to reach as far as Northern England's Humberside. Will the City permanently shed 50,000 or more jobs under cover of this gloomy environment? Will they see this as a chance to export jobs to India in the higher value back office occupations of research, analysis, and settlements? A lot of money shuffling activity in the second decade of this century may no longer occur in London, staffed by commuters from Essex or the Home Counties. These scenarios have been prematurely predicted before but now telecommunications, the Internet and a ready supply of educated Asian graduates have made it possible. Change may always be technically possible but it takes a decade or more for it to become accepted practice We have now passed much of that decade.

The City always culls and then recruits when the good times return. This time round, will they fire and forget to rehire?

Thinking long term, the finance minister, Gordon Brown, once mentioned having to cope with the inexorable rise of China and India. The implication was that along with lucrative opportunities, there would be severe "challenges" to manufacturing and services. This is what one would expect to hear in an intelligent election campaign. Of course, this is the last thing any one wants to talk about.

The Missing Big Issues:* When, how, or even if the UK should join the Euro;

* Rebalancing the relationship with Europe and the US;

* Medium term social and economic restructuring to face the Asian challenge;

* Energy security.

Instead it has been about race (under the guise of discussing immigration) and the legal minutiae concerning the invasion of Iraq. The Tory Leader is using ultra-right Australian advisors and engaging in "attack-dog-politics." It has not been a pretty sight. A constructive debate will occur once a crisis knocks out collective complacency and people can think the unthinkable.

What about the 2009 election?

Will 2005 be to New Labour what 1992 was for the Tories? If so, by 2009, New Labour will be burnt out, incapable of regeneration and will implode amid infighting. Without an overriding Project, no one will be able to take centre stage. Old Labour will never return since it was based on manufacturing labour -- the original working class. That reality ceased to exist many years ago. New fads such as "Respect" will go by the wayside and never enter the mainstream. The Right will always be there but remain a minority magnet for Little England. The traditional Conservative Party will never reclaim the position of "natural government."

If the Liberal Democrats win over a 100 to 120 seats in 2005, then they become a serious contender in 2009. We might also see the rise of regionalism as forces try to fill the vacuum. It all points to messy coalition politics. But that is a long way off yet. British PM Harold Wilson remarked, "a week is a long time in politics." Four years must seem like an eternity.

Farid Bakht is the founder of Futurebangla Network, an independent think tank.