Year-end thoughts

Let us start with our own country. In truth, the year has been quite barren for us in Bangladesh. The seemingly never-ending quarrel between the ruling BNP and the opposition Awami League has reached new heights and three appears to be no prospect in sight that they are going to resolve their differences. The focal point of politics -- the Jatiya Sangshad -- has reached the point of irrelevance. The main opposition Awami League continues to remain absent from its sessions. The ruling BNP, whose duty it is to assure opposition participation, appears to have given up.

I spent several months abroad and have looked in vain for news from Bangladesh. My foreign friends question me as to why is it that there never is news of Bangladesh. The truth is that our internal squabbles don't make the international news. Thus the state of affairs can be called barren. This is surely an abnormal state of affairs. In the midst of all this, former President Dr. Badruddoza Chowdhury has emerged on the political stage and has been very critical of the performance of his party. But it is too early to say how things will shape up.

If Bangladesh has been barren, the world has witnessed a turmoil the likes of which it has not seen for a long time. The year has been totally dominated by Iraq. Broadly speaking, the US along with the UK launched a totally unjustified war against Iraq last March. Given the difference of strength between the two sides, it was a short and bloody affair. The process of waging war against Iraq divided the Security Council, as the US and the UK found themselves quite alone. France, an influential member of the Security Council strongly opposed the US-led resolution and Russia and China along with non-permanent members like Germany went along.

Baghdad, the capital of Iraq, was severely bombed as were many other parts of Iraq. Iraq lay prostrate as coalition forces led by the US entered Baghdad. On May 1, US President George Bush announced victory. His announcement, as later events have proved, was a little premature. The Iraqis have waged and continue to wage a guerilla war, targeting mainly the US forces and increasingly the Iraqi collaborators of the present regime. The US continues to pay a heavy price for her occupation of Iraq. The death toll of US soldiers is more than what she lost during the war and the toll is mounting daily. The body bags of US soldiers returning home is not a pretty sight.

President George W Bush appears to be in a hurry to pull his forces out of Iraq. The deadline set by him is July. Before then he intends to patch up an Iraqi Government and hand over power. The process will be sanctified by some kind of election. Looking at the present administration of Iraq, it appears that they will continue to play an important role. Interestingly the present team appears to be dominated by Kurds like Masud Barzani and Jalal Talabani along with the Foreign Minister Hussein Zabari. Adnan Pachachi, another important member of the team, is also a Kurd.

There are three main ethnic groups in Iraq -- the Shias, the largest group, followed by the Sunnis and then the Kurds. It should be noted in passing that the US and long before them the British have been trying to create a Kurdish state in the north of Iraq. This has led to endless friction between the US and her loyal ally, Turkey, because there are many more Kurds in Turkey than northern Iraq. It is again the Kurds, who have willingly collaborated with the US with the hope of getting their long cherished dream of Kurdistan realised. Unfortunately for the Kurds none of Iraq's neighbours -- Iran, Turkey and Syria -- all of whom have Kurdish population, want to see a Kurdistan. With the help of US bayonets the Kurds appear to be in the driver's seat today. Once the US troops pull out the situation may change dramatically. For the US to pull out without stabilizing the situation, would leave a bad taste in the mouth.

The US appears to be in a hurry for the simple reason that the US Presidential elections are around the corner in almost exactly one year's time. For President Bush there is a one point agenda -- to get reelected. Just now he appears to be riding high because as it was announced by his representative in Iraq Paul Bremer: "We got him!" meaning the capture of Saddam Hussein. Had this event led to a decrease of the guerilla warfare of the Iraqis, President Bush could heave a sigh of relief. But that prospect looks dim. Meanwhile, President Bush appears unable to cajole any of the three remaining members of the Security Council to contribute troops to his coalition forces.

The lesson that we can learn from the misadventure in Iraq of President Bush is that the severe blow he received on September 11, 2001, so completely rattled him that in order to prove that the US was still a superpower, he had to lash out. Afghanistan was a small fish and the mastermind of September 11, Osama bin Laden was a guest of the Taliban government led by Mullah Omar. Afghanistan was not satisfying enough and President Bush, along with his ally Prime Minister Tony Blair, decided to invade Iraq.

Many articles have appeared suggesting that Ariel Sharon provoked President Bush to attack Iraq. Sharon, the Israeli hawk wants to dominate the Middle East, riding on the back of the US, and Saddam was a formidable obstacle.

Through her war against Iraq, US has attempted to reestablish her superpower status severely dented on 9/11. Western Europe by refusing to toe the US line has demonstrated that there is another centre of power. Cool heads in the US will not fail to draw appropriate lessons. The European Union continues to emerge as a formidable presence. Population-wise it is the third largest in the world after China and India. In economic power it is today among the strongest and its currency Euro has left behind the mighty Dollar. In May, the EU will become a union of 25 member states with ten new additions. Such is the magic in the name EU that more and more countries are queuing up. Turkey has been attempting to join this body for nearly four decades. She appears tantalisingly close to wresting a date for the start of negotiations for eventual membership.

Near home, Indo-Pakistan relations appear to take a turn for the better. In the beginning of January, Indian Premier Atal Behari Vajpayee is due to meet President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan under the SAARC umbrella to be held in Pakistan. Efforts have gathered pace for clearing the decks so that a serious dialogue may begin. It may be recalled that nearly three years ago Bus diplomacy had started between Premier Vajpayee and the ousted Pakistani Premier Nawaz Sharif. Vajpayee had set his heart to a successful dialogue with Sharif. Nawaz Sharif was an elected Prime Minister of Pakistan. The constituency of Gen. Musharraf is the armed forces. In case he succeeds in his enterprise, will he be able to obtain popular sanction within Pakistan? On the other hand given the power structure of Pakistan, without the sanction of the armed forces, no deal appears feasible. As we are about to enter 2004, people of goodwill will hope that this will be the beginning of a turning of the tide in Indo-Pak relations.

The situation on the Palestine-Israel front has been totally barren with a lot of bloodshed. Holding carte blanche from his friend Bush, Ariel Sharon has literally gone on a rampage and killed and destroyed Palestine. Not content with his murderous run on defenceless Palestinians, he is busy erecting his 'Israeli wall' where he wants to hold Palestinians as prisoners. He will succeed as long his friend Bush is in power. It is sad to see the charade of negotiations between Palestine and Israel. Meanwhile the elected leader of the Palestinians Yasser Arafat languishes in what must be described as the broken down jail of Ramallah. The fact has to be squarely faced --so long the US is not even-handed in her dealing of the Palestine-Israel conflict as was the case with former President Bill Clinton, there is no hope of any resolution between the Palestinians and the Israelis.

Immobilism seems to be the order of the day within the Commonwealth. Zimbabwe continues to be ostracised. Britain appears unable to shed her colonial past. Pakistan in spite of her military dictatorship seems to have made some progress in getting readmitted to the Commonwealth. Malaysia has seen an important change of guard. That country took some big strides forward under the dynamic leadership of Mahathir Mohamad. China continues to gather strength quietly. Her forceful appearance on the world stage can only be a matter of time.

As we enter 2004, what is uppermost in our minds is the turmoil through which the world is passing. It appears to me that it is due to the convulsions through which the world's lone superpower is passing after having lost the status on 9/11. It is a painful adjustment. Today the US is by far the preeminent power, but as the events in Iraq have demonstrated and continue to demonstrate everyday, to come to terms with the loss of her superpower status is the most painful experience of her tumultuous existence.

Arshad-uz Zaman is a former Ambassador.