The Year of the Monkey unfolds with a new controversy

Japan follows the ancient Chinese concept of dividing time and direction into twelve blocks, each given a name of an animal. The twelve-year time cycle with different animal symbolising each year is followed in Japan where each animal symbolises character and destiny of those who are born in that year. The year 2004 is thus marked as the Year of the Monkey.

This was Koizumi's fourth visit to the shrine since he took office in April 2001 and the first on New Year's Day. Since Yasukuni Shrine is the only place in Japan where country's wartime leadership is remembered with respect and dignity along with 2.46 million souls who died 'in defence of the country' since the start of the Meiji era in 1868, it also serves as the hotbed of nationalist fervour and is seen by Tokyo's Asian neighbours as a symbol of Japan's military aggression. Moreover, as the actions of the people on the very first day of the year largely symbolise the course they are going to follow throughout the year, it was no wonder that Koizumi faced the strongest reactions yet to a visit to Yasukuni Shrine.

Chinese officials didn't waste time to indicate they do not want Koizumi in their country, while the South Korean government was blunt in suggesting that Koizumi should refrain from visiting the shrine and consider the relations between the two countries and the feelings of the Korean people. Even at the home front the prime minister was under attack not only from his traditional rivals belonging to the opposition camp, but from his ruling coalition partner as well. The New Komei Party didn't hesitate to express dismay over the visit. But Koizumi reiterated that his Yasikuni trip on the first day of the year had nothing to do with annoying or pleasing any particular group and he was simply following a Japanese tradition to visit shrines on New Year's Day.

But critics are not convinced, as it appeared to him only this year that he had to follow the specific tradition. None of his previous three visits to Yasukuni as head of the Japanese government took place anytime near the first day of the year, nearest being on January 14 last year. Moreover, he also didn't sound convincing as to why he had to choose a controversial place for keeping up with the ritual that people in Japan follow. Such a visit also goes against the principle of the separation of state and religion, the point that New Komei Party stressed on while criticising the prime minister. As a result, there are numerous assumptions as what was the main motive behind taking a step that has the potential of having serious diplomatic implications. Majority of such assumptions, however, point not at Japan's Asian diplomacy, but the internal political situation of Japan and the vulnerability the prime minister is facing.

No doubt Koizumi's confidence had been badly shaken by the outcome of the general election in November. While he barely managed to hold on to power, the largest opposition, Democratic Party of Japan, made significant gain. Moreover, the government was under strong pressure from its closest ally, the United States, to join the occupation of Iraq by sending Japanese troops to help sorting out the mess that has been created in the region. For Koizumi sending troops to Iraq would mean taking a calculative risk that might complicate further his own position should there be casualties among Japanese soldiers. Japan has already started counting bodies in Iraq when in late November two of its diplomats were gunned down near Tikrit. But the incident somehow came as a blessing for Koizumi as the killing of unarmed diplomats paved the way for the government to portray them as victims of a situation that needs to be addressed through meaningful international cooperation, vis-à-vis the US request to join the coalition force.

Japan is now ready to dispatch soldiers of country's self proclaimed 'self defence forces' to defend the US occupation in Iraq. An advanced team of air force personnel is already in Kuwait where it is engaged in the construction of lodging facilities for the main contingent, as well as securing food and other supplies. The main contingent of 440 ground force troops, to be dispatched in batches from January 14, will spend first four days in Kuwait to get used to the desert conditions before moving over to their main duty station in southern Iraq. Once all Japanese troops are assembled in Iraq in late March and have become accustomed to the climate and terrain, they will begin their main task that Japanese Defence Agency mentions as of hauling water supplies and providing medical care.

For Koizumi the New Year, as a result, turned out to be a crucial time, as he needs to convince young Japanese soldiers poised to be sent overseas for the first time in country's post World War II history in a military mission not approved by the United Nations that in case of casualties their sacrifice will not go in vain as they can be sure of the blessings of Yasukuni. Some see in this gesture of the Japanese prime minister an act that glorifies dying in wars for the nation, no less than what the politicians in 1930s and early 1940s did when troops were dispatched to sort out matters in other countries in the name of 'Great East Asian Co-prosperity Sphere'.

Rage and anger both China and South Korea have expressed over Koizumi's New Year Day visit to Yasukuni can be interpreted precisely from that historical perspective. But despite such diplomatic fury over the issue, the greatest danger for Koizumi might come not from neighbouring countries but from within Japan if the mission in Iraq suddenly goes badly wrong. Majority in Japan are against sending troops to Iraq, whatever the character of the mission is. But so far the voice of opposition remains tacit, as the outcome for Japan until now are minimal. That might change quickly if misfortune strikes Japanese soldiers in the same way as it did to others. The blessings of Yasukuni in that case might also prove to be futile for the prime minister, as he might not hold his present position until another visit to the shrine early next year.