Lessons from Katrina: Time to go for clean energy

Scientists point out that all these disasters, starting from the Asian Tsunami to Mumbai deluge to Louisiana and New Orleans hurricane devastation have much to do with global warming -- effect of excess carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases generated by industry and agriculture. Following Hansen's (head of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies) warning that cars and factories are spewing enough gases into the atmosphere to heat up the earth in a greenhouse effect that could produce disastrous climate changes, these string of weather-related disasters that struck the world in recent time could not have been better timed to drive his point home. The heat waves, droughts, floods and hurricanes may be previews of what could happen with ever increasing frequency if the atmosphere warms further 3 degree to 8 degree Fahrenheit by the middle of this century, as some scientists predict.

Sure enough, period of confusion and uncertainty that clouded the mind of the policymakers giving them an excuse for delay is almost over and no one now disputes the fact that the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen and continues to increase rapidly and the human race is thus conducting a dangerous experiment on an unprecedented scale. The possible consequences are so scary as we have witnessed recently in different countries starting from Asia to America, especially in the coastal zones. It is only prudent for governments to slow the buildup of carbon dioxide through preventive measures, from encouraging energy conservation to developing alternatives to fossil fuels.

Currently the most pressing and complex environmental problem is the greenhouse effect. The industrial age has been fueled by the burning of coal, wood and oil which spews carbon dioxide into the sky. This thickens the layer of atmospheric gases that trap heat from the sun and keeps the earth warm. The greenhouse effect is expected to bring more changes more quickly than any other climatic event in the earth's history. Scientists warn that the changes cannot be stopped though they can be slowed. But the time is short. Says Robert Dickinson, a senior scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research, "we don't have 100 years. We have 10 or 20 at most". Agreeably, the US is by far the biggest polluter on the planet. With only 4 per cent of the world's population, America produces 25 per cent of its greenhouse gases. Immediately after being elected president George W. Bush announced that the gas should not be regulated as a pollutant, particularly during a burgeoning energy crisis.

People might be interested to know the nature of conversation the ambassadors of 15 European nations had with Condoleezza Rice, National Security Adviser of the US President George W. Bush in 2001, about Global Warming and Kyoto Treaty. "Kyoto," she said, "is not acceptable to the Administration and Congress." Did the White House agree that global warming was a looming crisis, the ambassadors wanted to know. Yes, Rice answered. But, she explained, "We will have to find new ways to deal with the problem.

Kyoto is dead" The global reaction at that time, as it is now, was swift and furious. Governments condemned the US President's stance as uninformed and reckless, noting with outrage the enormous pollution problem the US was creating blissfully unaware of the consequences.

Bush's hardline has stunned environmentalists and with the U.S. essentially sidelining itself in the global-warming fight, it is possible that the battle may never be effectively engaged. What's causing the most distress among the environmentalists is that President Bush had to pay the price in his own coin because chickens have come home to roost. With New Orleans, now a vast wasteland battered by hurricane Katrina, believably an effect of global warming that wrecks coastal regions most unsparingly, President Bush has hardly any reason to feel complacent and renege on the treaty. Nevertheless, scientists had already warned that if the warming is not slowed, the greenhouse effect will melt enough of the polar ice caps to threaten the water supply of New York City and the very existence of low lying New Orleans in the middle of this century. Unhappily, the disaster has struck much earlier than that. But with concerted action and new technologies, it's not too late to cool down the greenhouse.

Encouragingly, in the US state and local governments have been increasingly active in implementing greenhouse programmes of their own, clamping down on emissions within their borders, stepping up mass-transit initiatives and enforcing conservation laws. Corporations in such sooty industries as oil and autos have been climbing on board too, imposing on themselves very restrictions Washington won't. Outside the US, green-leaning developed nations like the EU members and emerging polluters like China and Mexico have seemed to be getting the message, implementing new programmes and testing new technologies to control global warming, even without the cudgel of Kyoto. Environmentalists argue that we have no time to lose and even other nations of the world may have to go it alone."

Meanwhile Vice-President Dick Cheney who has been heading an energy task force called for increased oil exploration in Alaska and new oil and gas pipelines with suggestion for renewed construction of nuclear power plants, which put out no carbon but generate extremely radioactive waste.. Evidently all these programmes construed to be cover-up actions by many fall far short of the comprehensive vision for emission control that Kyoto once seemed to offer.

But an effective programme to fight climate change need not involve huge increases in energy prices or draconian rules that choke industries at the smokestacks. Of course, the best way to conserve energy and reduce pollution would be to phase out cars in favour of mass transportation. But let's face it: that's not going to happen. People want a private, comfortable way to get around and so our love affair with the automobile is as hot as ever. More than 17 million cars are sold each year in the US alone and demand is surging in developing countries such as China where sales are expected to grow from 600,000 in 2001 to 2 million in 2010. Because people won't give up their four-wheelers, the challenge is to reduce the tail-pipe emissions that contribute to everything from respiratory distress to global warming. So we have to build a sustainable transportation technology that does not ask people to sacrifice. The emphasis could be on introducing new technologies that would make conservation not only easier but also economical, if not profitable at the initial period.

The report from the Intergovern-mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommends a range of new devices, including hybrid gas-electric cars that run half the time on a traditional internal-combustion engine and the rest of the time on batteries, boosting gas mileage considerably. This technology could even be put into SUVs. Also promising is the combined cycle gas turbine that could be used in place of traditional turbines to generate electricity. The new hardware operates at up to 60 per cent efficiency, nearly twice of any other turbine. The most exciting thing would be to add a device that captures escaping heat and using that to warm buildings in which case the efficiency jumps to 90 per cent. Many industry watchers believe that the fuel of the future for powering electric cars will be hydrogen. Specially fuel cells can combine hydrogen with oxygen to produce electricity, driving a motor that can spin the wheels of the car much more quickly than a gas engine can. The only thing spewing from the tail pipe is water-pure enough to drink. Researchers at General Motors have shown one of the most innovative approaches to fuel cell cars with the Hy-wire prototype, unveiled in 2002.

The IPCC was particularly keen on wind power. Since fossil fuels are heating up the earth, the race is on to develop cool alternatives. Encouragingly, wind is now the world's fastest growing power source. Experts say wind could provide up to 12 per cent of the world's electricity within the next decade. In the US, wind turbines have generally been limited to the environmental fringes. In Europe, however, they mean business. The EU produces 70 per cent of the world's wind-generated energy, with Germany, Denmark and Spain leading the way. Worldwide, wind turbines account for about 15 gigawatts of energy, which is the equivalent of 15 coal-fired power plants. The Netherlands will soon be getting into the game in a big way, building one of the world's largest wind farms five miles offshore, a remote location that can take advantage of brisk sea breezes while keeping the sometimes noisy mills out of human earshot. Similar wind farms built in a place like North Dakota could generate not just energy but profits. Farmers earn $50 an acre from wheat but can reap $2000 an acre selling wind-generated power.

Outside the EU other countries are unexpectedly taking a leadership role in curbing global warming. Mexico, which for decades has been choking on its own exhaust, is planning to double its output of geothermal powerenergy generated by natural underground heating which would place it third in the world in geothermal production, behind the US and the Philippines. Mexican government has promised a bill that would open the national power grid to electricity produced by all manners of alternative sources. China, with 11 per cent of the world's carbon dioxide output -- second to the US -- has cracked down on emissions and reduced its greenhouse output by 17 per cent eliminating more than the entire carbon dioxide production of Southeast Asia. Beijing's goal was less to curb global warming than to clean air and protect the health of its population. But whatever the motivations, the policy is paying environmental dividends, as the climate expert Kevin Baumart of W.R.I. says, "When China takes action, it has global implications". Hurricane Katrina hitting the most developed and affluent country has at least made us learn a big lesson: For all our technological brilliance and modernity, we are being reminded that Mother Nature is still the boss.

Cool alternatives must be developed to ward off global warming related disasters.

Md Asadullah Khan is a former teacher of physics and Controller of Examinations, BUET.