Talking climate change

The climate system is relentlessly changing, and change may be rapid. The immediate causes of this change are the emissions of greenhouse gases from energy production and consumption, agriculture, transport and ecological processes. Behind these sources of greenhouse gas emissions are broader driving forces related to economic transformations, prospects for alternative energy pathways and equity across regions and populations. For many, emissions of greenhouse gases are necessary for survival; for others, they result from luxury consumption and lifestyles.

The last few centuries have seen startling transformations in human history and, especially, how we use our environment. The Industrial Revolution led to vast improvements in livelihoods and a rapid growth in greenhouse gas emissions as fossil fuels, beginning with coal, were used more intensively. With the internal combustion engine and transportation, new technologies fed demand and welfare, and further accelerated emissions. Technological capabilities and growing populations contributed to changing land use and deforestation.

Historically, industrialised nations relying on fossil fuels have played a major role in increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide, and they remain the key emitters today. Focusing on energy needs for economic development, rather than for sustainability, industrialised countries invested heavily in carbon-intensive technologies, such as coal-fired power plants, massive road systems, and electrical grids. Globalisation has made extensive transportation of goods and services the norm, and access to foreign markets crucial for economic growth.

Our future is partly dependent on the path established by past developments. With some greenhouse gases remaining in the atmosphere for centuries, historical emissions have guaranteed the inevitability of climate change for several decades, regardless of policy responses. And the burden of impacts is likely to be most serious in developing countries, even though they have contributed little to historical emissions. This imbalance between responsibility for the current causes of climate change and its impacts creates an enduring global inequity. While the economies of developing countries such as China and India are growing rapidly, leading to greater energy use and higher living standards, other countries cannot afford national electricity grids, much less energy-intensive luxuries.

The strength and momentum of these driving forces, the entrenched commitment to carbon-intensive economies, and the relationship between luxury consumption and basic needs are all part of the challenges in achieving reduction in emissions.

Responding to change
The challenges of mitigating and adapting to climate changes are unprecedented, but not insurmountable. There are key elements and institutions to build upon; equally there is much to be done and delay will result in higher future costs. The scale of reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to safer levels requires truly international cooperation. A twin goal must be to facilitate adaptation among those least able to protect themselves from climate impacts.

The recent release of the Stern Report on the economics of climate change is the latest call to action. The day approaches when humanity no longer has the option of staying as far below 2 degrees global warming as possible. Business as usual will mean even greater warming and risk up to 20 per cent of the value of the global economy. The cost of taking action will be far less than the cost of impacts.

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aims to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic [human-induced] interference with the climate system.

This level should be achieved within a time-frame that allows ecosystems to adapt to climate change, ensures that food production is not threatened, and enables economic development to proceed in a "sustainable manner". Agreed in Rio in June 1992, the Convention came into force in March 1994.

The Convention places the initial onus on the industrialised nations and 12 economies in transition to reduce their emissions, and finance developing countries' search for strategies to limit their own emissions in ways that will not hinder their economic progress.

The Convention is a flexible framework, clearly recognising that there is a problem. The first addition to the treaty, the Kyoto Protocol, set targets for reductions in emissions. Adopted in 1997, it came into force in February 2005. The USA and Australia have signed the Convention but not the Protocol, creating uncertainty around the next steps.

Both UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol are now under implementation, UNFCCC for 12 years and Kyoto Protocol for two years. Implementation of the Commitment with regard to emission reduction, technology transfer and capacity building under UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol still remains a far cry. Few fund namely Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) and Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) under UNFCCC for meeting the adaptation need of the developing countries, in particular the Least Developed Countries (LDC's), have been established. Vulnerable countries are yet to get benefit with support from this fund as size of the fund don't match with the requirement of adaptation needs of the vulnerable countries. Bangladesh has prepared its "National Adaptation Plan of Action" to fulfill the primary conditionalities for accessing funds from these two sources.

Nairobi meeting
The Twelfth Conference of the Parties and Second Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (COP 12 and COP/MOP) was held in Nairobi from 6 to 17 November 2006. It was a crucial meeting for discussing the issues like deeper cut emission reduction in the industrialised countries in coming years, adaptation needs of the Developing Countries, in particular the Least Developed Countries (LDC), and how to bring back USA and Australia under the Kyoto process including meaningful participation of bigger economics in developing countries in emission reduction. The first challenge was to agree on the principles and modalities for the "Adaptation Fund", the only fund established under the Kyoto Protocol, from 2 percent levy on Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects which is going to be the principal fund for meeting adaptation needs of the developing countries, and to move forward adaptation negotiation from the planning and assessment stage to implementation & practical action.

This challenge has been met. Principles and modalities of the adaptation fund have been agreed by the Parties with one country one vote in the governance of the fund and an executing agency for operationalisation of the fund to work under the direct authority and guidance of COP/MOP. The five-year programme of work on adaptation on concrete activities has also been agreed upon. On Transfer of Technologies and the Clean Development Mechanism, the main vehicle for implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, the outcome is discouraging. Though institutional and technical capacity building needs of the LDCs for CDM have been agreed upon but without an agreement on concrete measures with regard to technology transfer. On emission reduction commitments for the developed countries and to build incentives for synergy between sustainable development and climate change mitigation, discussions have not much progressed. The negotiators need to work hard in future meeting to find a way forward for an equitable and effective future climate change regime that evades us to stabilise atmospheric concentration of green house gases while at the same time allowing economic development to proceed in a sustainable way.

Score card of Bangladesh
For the last few years, Bangladesh has been able to exert itself as the spokesman for 49 LDC countries. At Nairobi, Bangladesh on behalf of LDCs, submitted a conference room paper outlining principles and modalities for operationalisation of the Adaptation Fund. The meeting accepted this paper as basis for discussion during negotiation and finally proposals put forward in the conference room paper by Bangladesh were agreed upon by the parties with minor amendments. This has been a major achievement and recognition for Bangladesh in the climate negotiation arena. Bangladesh also demanded compensation for climate victims, including immediate adaptation needs of the millions and raised the issue of Climate Refugees to be addressed in future commitments. Bangladesh has also proposed to draw on additional resources including levies on other flexible mechanisms such as Joint Implementations and Emission Trading and on International Aviation for Adaptation Fund for generation of more fund for adaptation needs.

Bangladesh has also made a plea that climate change adversely affects the poorest most and hence adaptation activities through country participation with the help of microfinance could be a way forward to address their woes. In the high level segment, the leader of Bangladesh delegation in his statement stated that "Bangladesh has made significant progress in microfinance, and this is also demonstrated in the recent recognition given to Dr. Mohammad Yunus and the Grameen Bank by awarding the Noble Peace Prize this year. This achievement clearly establishes the ground to explore for new opportunity to service our needs and requirement through microfinance and insurance.

Mohammad Reazuddin is a Director of the Department of Environment in charge of Planning, Research and International Conventions