Who will win in India's northeast elections?
The advent of the new year—2018—has put India into an election mode. With the Election Commission announcing the schedule for assembly elections in three northeastern states of Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland to be held in February-March, the decks have been cleared for the first major round of electoral battle in the run-up to fresh national elections due early next year. The three states are small in size and their legislative assemblies have a total of 60 seats each. Besides, the size of the electorate (with a combined voter base of a little over 55 lakh with Tripura having the highest number of 25.6 lakh) is also small compared to many other bigger states of India. But this should take nothing away from the importance of the coming elections in the three states because they belong to a region of the country in which India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is aggressively pushing for expanding its footprints after being a negligible force for long.
An idea of BJP's rise in the northeast can be derived from the fact that just three years ago, it was the Congress party which ruled four northeastern states—Meghalaya, Nagaland, Assam, and Arunachal Pradesh, and was the main opposition in Tripura. Today, Assam, Nagaland, and Arunachal Pradesh are already with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. The saffron party tasted major success in the northeast for the first time having come to power in Assam through the last assembly polls in 2016 and forming its government, bringing to an end 15 years of uninterrupted Congress rule. Thereafter, it grew inorganically in the region by forming government in Manipur in 2017 by luring legislators from Congress and other parties. BJP also shares power with its allies in Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh. Clearly, the politics in India's northeast is in for more churnings in the coming days.
Ever since coming to power at the Centre in May 2014, BJP has been focusing on the northeast like never before with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, party chief Amit Shah and a host of central ministers frequently touring the region. The central government has pushed key infrastructure projects, including road, rail and bridge, in the northeast. On the other hand, the coming elections in the three states hold significance for Congress, which was once a dominant force in the northeast, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) in Tripura, which is the only state where it is in power besides the southern state of Kerala after having lost West Bengal in 2011. Out of the total seven states in the northeast, Congress today is in power only in Meghalaya, a sharp contrast to the scenario that had prevailed some two to three years ago when the party was governing five states: Assam, Mizoram, Arunachal, Meghalaya and Manipur. In fact, Meghalaya is one of the four states across India where Congress rules apart from Karnataka, Punjab and Puducherry.
BJP may not find the going easy in Tripura where the CPI(M)-led Left is entrenched in power structures since 1993 having won successive elections to the assembly. In Marxist Chief Minister Manik Sarkar CPI(M) has a popular leader who has remained untainted by any graft charge, although the opposition has levelled allegations of corruption against his government. Neither BJP nor Congress has a leader who comes anywhere near Sarkar's stature and appeal. BJP has emerged as the main challenger to CPI(M) in the state at the cost of Congress which has declined over the years and was hit by defection of its leaders to other parties. Six Congress legislators first joined Trinamool Congress and then switched allegiance to BJP recently. Sarkar himself has acknowledged this by saying that the saffron party would be the Left's principal adversary in the electoral battle. BJP knows it alone cannot challenge the might of the Left in Tripura and has entered into a pre-election alliance with a tribal outfit, Indigenous People's Front of Tripura, to contest the poll. BJP is leaving no stone unturned to woo tribal voters in Tripura who constitute an estimated 32 percent of the total electorate of the state. But the question is: will such a strategy be enough for BJP to dislodge the Left or will it just help the party emerge as a credible opposition force replacing Congress?
In Christian-majority Meghalaya, BJP may have to contend with Congress party's campaign targeting the saffron party for its perceived penchant for consolidation of Hindu votes. In this state too, BJP may have to depend on a tie-up with Nationalist People's Party (NPP) of Conrad Sangma, son of late Parliament Speaker PA Sangma. NPP is a constituent of BJP-led National Democratic Alliance at the national level but it remains to be seen if the two parties will go for an alliance to fight Congress at the state elections. However, NPP seems wary of a pre-poll tie-up because of the controversy over cow vigilantism and an outcry against beef consumption in which some BJP leaders in other parts of India have been embroiled. In fact, Congress Chief Minister of Meghalaya Mukul Sangma has already made it clear that his party will "expose the covert dealings" between NPP and BJP.
Among the three states, the most intriguing political scenario is in Nagaland where BJP is part of the ruling coalition, Naga People's Front (NPF), which has been wracked by feud among its top leaders—Chief Minister TR Zeliang, party president Shurhozelie Liezietsu, and parliamentarian Neiphiu Rio who quit NPF and joined National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) a few days ago. On its own, BJP is a much smaller player in Nagaland compared to the state-specific parties. BJP knows NPF and NDPP are inclined to be on the right side of the party that rules India because the smaller northeastern states are dependent on financial assistance from the central government.
But given the intense rivalry among the top NPF and NDPP leaders, it is not sure if it would be politically wise for BJP to go for a pre-poll alliance with any party and may rather wait to see which party emerges as the single largest party after the elections. Though a part of ruling NPF, BJP is sensing an opportunity in the faction-ridden NPF (despite an uneasy truce between Zeliang and Liezietsu) and could choose to go alone in Nagaland elections to overcome anti-incumbency. Congress was a force to reckon with in Nagaland until about 14 years ago, but all its legislators joined NPF. Political loyalties and equations in most of the northeastern states are highly susceptible to change particularly when politics and electoral results in the states have remained fragmented.
Beyond the northeast, assembly elections are also due in BJP-ruled states Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Congress-governed Karnataka. While BJP has to contend with anti-incumbency in the states where it is in power, Congress can be encouraged from its spirited show in state elections in Modi's home state last December. It remains to be seen, however, if a good show by BJP in Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Karnataka can nudge the party to go for advancing the parliamentary elections from its due time.
Pallab Bhattacharya is a special correspondent of The Daily Star.